And I note up front that I’m purely an amateur at most things financial, especially the stock market.  I “got into” the stock market with mutual funds in January 1997.  I used the “big” raise when I got promoted from first lieutenant to captain to fully fund my IRA and take some “play money” to the market.  Until last fall, I was doing OK — as was nearly everyone else who was doing something similar.

The difference for me is I have about twenty years until I need to try to pry anything out of those mutual funds, so as long as they stay solvent, I should do fine.  I’m going to be brash and say I saw this coming back in around 1999.  Any number of books could have foretold what has happened, but I read The Bear Book:  Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets by John Rothchild.  In essence, I learned I needed to get out of debt and stay that way, because the next bear market would be brutal.

Beginning in Summer, 1996, I was trapped in NYC and besides rent and outrageous car insurance, I didn’t need to spend money, so I committed to getting out of debt. I was proud to leave NYC debt-free in 1999, and I’m pleased to say I’ve been able to avoid debt since then.  For those of you endeavoring to do the same thing, stay committed.  It’s worth every sacrifice you make to get your debt paid off and live on cash afterward.  It’s incredibly freeing, and you can do it.

I’m looking at the graph of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from it’s inception.  The last time the market dipped to the level it’s at right now, it took two years to recover.  I’m going to speculate it will take four years to recover from this latest plunge.  Why?  Because it fell twice as far to get to the point it’s at right now, so I believe it will take twice as long to recover.

I hope it recovers quicker, but with what I’m seeing happen in Washington, I fear it may take far longer.  I’m seeing a dearth of people, corporations, and politicians willing and able to accept responsibility for their actions, and I see nobody holding them accountable.  I don’t believe the incoming administration is really going to release every individual from their financial woes, no matter how many people speculate it will be so.  Once those people realize the Promised Land has not been delivered, I’m sure they will feel betrayed.  Cries of “Tax the Rich” may sound great until you realize that “they” think you’re “Rich.”  “Tax Big Business” sounds great until Big Business has to lay people off to pay their taxes, or worse, they take their production facilities off-shore.  Then people don’t have a job to be able to pay taxes.   Or buy food.  Or pay for  housing.  And all that bailout money?  It was never really there — vapor cash.  See, we haven’t paid the taxes to produce it yet, because money Congress appropriates comes from taxes paid by hard working Americans.  There is no Free Lunch.  It may not be you, but somebody pays.

The more you expect your government to provide for you, the more they have to take from you to be able to provide it.  This is a very slippery slope we’re descending toward Socialism, and I’m very concerned the nation  won’t find its way away from that raging river ready to snatch us away.

But, like in September 2001 when I was pleased to see this country and the rest of the world come together during tough times, I hope we still have it in us to come together again, make the tough calls, double down, knuckle under, and all those terms that mean we dig in our heels and fight back.  If we can find it within ourselves to do what needs to be done, we’ll be fine.